Thursday, 30 April 2009

Surprise? What Surprise? Feedback on Obama's 100d Press Conference

Was watching last night while live tweeting - Thought Obama did an excellent presentation. Loved the New York Times' Jeff Zeleny's question: Obama's reaction when writing down 'enchanted' was dead priceless. But here's the thing: the one question that seemed frothy and light, was where I kind of freaked out a bit.. 



Thought the surprise answer was a spectacular fail. BO claimed surprise (35:10) at the number of critical issues that weren't apparent 18 months ago, particularly the financial crisis. What rubbish: the Bear Stearns fund bailout debacle kicked off in June 2007 ultimately culminating in its Federal Reserve-brokered sale to JP Morgan Chase in March 2008 - with Lehman Brothers close on its heels. This was well before the presidential campaigns kicked off, all the candidates should've had a handle on this, and yes I do believe they should have seen this current crisis coming, especially a former candidate who was embraced quite warmly by the financial industry the way BO was.

While I think it's too early to judge the Administration, Obama's condescension towards partisanship and the politics of the Beltway seems petulant and beneath a sitting POTUS - especially coming from a former US Senator. That quirk only underscores how little his Senate career prepared him for his current role. It can't all be Bush's fault (were that it could...) or the fault of politics.

Makes me think of Ellis Cose's brilliant article, "12 Things", where he lists 12 rules of thumb on thriving in America. Number 9 talks about hard work, intelligence, competence not always being enough to get you the results you want. 

"...the general rule is that any organization (government, private business, educational or other) is essentially a social body that rewards those fully engaged in the game. To the extent we try to hold ourselves above that process, we end up losing..."

Obama would do well to commit that to memory. Or at least to his BlackBerry.

Tuesday, 28 April 2009

Twitter Follow Fever: Why The Numbers Don't Matter

Ahhhh, Back To Normal: 11 days after the Kutcher/CNN race, and Twitter hasn't crumbled, the Horsemen of the O-Prah-Colypse didn't show up, and the TwitterVerse is pretty much as it was Pre-Hoopla. Sure, Kutcher missed the point about Twitter: he's in no way the 'little guy' he portrayed himself to be, he's the Hollywood GoldenBoy he always was with a follow/follower profile that's textbook 'Celebrity' (e.g. he follows less than 0.007% of his follower population total). And sure, the Race was disruptive – hopefully those Tweeps who got caught up in the madness and inflicted their infectiousness on their follows can look back to that time as if from a fever dream and regret having been fooled into becoming a RSS feed on the behalf of someone whose overstated triumph wasn't quite the life-changing event they believed it was.

One quirk exposed by the Kutcher event to those outside the TwitterVerse and clarified for those within is this fixation on increasing follower volumes through whatever means necessary. Right now, a key TwitterVerse complaint is spamming promising “Get 30,000 followers in 30 days”, etc.

Follow The Leaders, But Which Ones?

But why is this important? The Twitter pundits who said that the 1 million follower mark made by a homegrown Twitterer would be a more meaningful event to the Internet than the @aplusk extravaganza were dead right. Some of the top candidates for that ribbon hover  around the 100,000 marker. But what does that really mean? Surely anyone with that many followers has lots of influence already with their followships...right? 

Well...I can think of at least 5 such Twitterers – all of whom I follow - whose ideologies or products I care absolutely nothing about. From my 10 weeks on Twitter (yes, I'm a relative newbie – but was on way before Oprah, thank you!), I get a sense that jacking up follower volumes is a serious commitment, but where's the benefit other than bragging rights. Something else: many of those Twitterers don't come across as distinctive personalities.  On the contrary, they can be rather benign, inoffensive, and just, you know, 'there'. NB: A notable exception is @brooksbayne: his ultra-conservative political tweeting can be polarising, but his followship numbers aren't necessarily an indicator of purist sympathetic tendencies (that an ideological agnostic such as myself follows him proves the point).

Enter the @Murnahan

An interesting Twitterer who has around 10,000 followers and is arguably more influential than most of the 100K Twitterers is Mark Murnahan. In the quest towards pulling out TwitterVerse's Excalibur sword, Murnahan's a candidate for a grass-roots King Arthur. According to @murnahan's bio, he's a SEO expert, and so far, has no plans for media domination. What's cool about Murnahan is that he truly engages his followers: as of today, he follows around 10,000, with a very high percentage of reciprocation. And his is a real, authentic personality: intelligent, inquisitive, communicative, and can be – on occasion – profoundly silly. His 'Dear Tweeps' love tweets are becoming the stuff of TwitterLore.

Mamurnahan_normal
MurnahanDear Tweeps: I love you so much. If you were here I would hug you until you sharthttp://bit.ly/kprDG (expand) #love
1 day ago from TweetDeck · Reply · View Tweet

(Charming! - Ed.)

Scatological insights aside, Murnahan 'gets' Twitter culture: his blog was an oasis of sanity during the Kutcher/CNN race, and his post-event analysis was quite possibly the Best In Show on the day. Being your authentic self on Twitter means that you risk alienating people, which I'm sure he does; he isn't some bland avatar precisely because he is himself. Equally, he isn't a politico-spammer or RSS feed either, he's well-rounded enough for people to connect with him. And it's this level of connection that shows what Twitter can be: a place to connect with others as well as develop a brand, where high numbers don't really count for as much as folks seem to think it does. Hopefully the TwitterVerse can get this lesson before I get yet another DM spammer promising Kutcher-like results – which brings me to my #TwitterTip for today: be yourself, don't worry about the numbers.  Especially if you wouldn't know what to do with them anyway! 

Wednesday, 8 April 2009

Bishop's Checkmate On a Parky Pawn


What was Parky thinking? The so-called 'Sir' Michael Parkinson - clearly with not enough activities to fill out his retirement schedule - took it upon himself to publicly disrespect the late Jade Goody as representing the worst in Britain. Goody - who lost her bout with cervical cancer at the age of 27 this Mother's Day - was buried this weekend.  Parky clearly didn't wait for the ground over her grave to harden - with ants in his pants he went to the papers and slammed a dead mother for being stupid, with 2 young children and a grieving family watching in shock. 

Was pleased to see Bishop Blake stand up for Goody in his blog for what was an astonishingly poor show of decency from the ParkBag. For all his derision of Goody's background, I was very surprised to read about Parky's own history - dishcloth roots and all.  Well, Goody achieved more by 27 in making the public aware of the devastation of cervical cancer - her battle has already saved lives.  Not sure if watching the likes of David Beckham on 'Parkinson' really matches up (NB: Posh and Becks??? Talk about working class Britain !).

Well, Parky - you may be called 'Sir' these days, but you're definitely no 'Gentleman'.  

Thursday, 26 March 2009

AIG'S Jake DeSantis: Should We Feel Sorry For Him or What

So, what to make of AIG's soon-to-be-former EVP Jake DeSantis and his resignation letter? I bet more Americans read that letter than read the transcript from Tuesday's POTUS press conference, which may be fair enough...

Upon first review, I felt very sympathetic towards the guy because, IMO, these AIG 'bonuses' are a spectacular red herring in the first instance; they were retainment payments and in fact should have been reviewed as part of the TARP fund allocation process and assumed renegotiated.  NB: Strike 1 against the current Administration for not catching that one...

But a second gaze screams,  'Give Me A Break', and for the following reasons:
  • JD's point about not being responsible for the credit default swap transactions. Please. While the average layperson may not know the ins-and-outs of financial transaction management, some of us more knowledgeable in derivatives - who aren't too happy with recent events, mind - do.  Many credit derivative transactions are and were hedged by equity products and as the head of commodity/equity trading, JD not only knows this but it's not unreasonable to think that many of the CDS positions were being hedged by trades in his desk.  So his 'not-my-fault' stance' seems patently inappropriate.
  • JD's EVP status. The letter's tone seemed to come from someone who while not quite an ingenue, wasn't a fully seasoned racehorse either.  If JD did indeed come from humble beginnings as he states, then his rise in AIG was fairly fast-tracked if not meteoric.  Meaning that the doe-eyed indignation therein is about as transparent as being on the inside of Harry Potter's Invisibility Cloak.  If investment banking is a reasonable comparative culture (and I think we can assume it is), no one rises to that level in that time-span without swimming in-school with all the Big Fishes and having his soul bought and paid for with the bill of lading long discarded.  Jake, if you agree that you were overpaid previously, then you clearly accepted your fate or fortune - complaining now just makes you seem overwrought and underwhelming.
So a weird one all round - I can't possibly understand what JD was thinking by making this public (because AIG sure as hell didn't...).  A reader from the NYTimes - Rolf from NY - said it best to sum up:

"If your company accepts tens of billions from taxpayers, consider your bonus payments renegotiated."

Tuesday, 24 March 2009

Initial reaction to Obama's Press Conference

In brief: - it's clear to me that Obama still feels the need to prove himself or validate himself as the POTUS ("As long as I'm in this office" - what is this all about???).

Generally wasn't impressed but wasn't offended. More later...

60ft Penis found on Berkshire roof. (Yeah, you heard me...)


So what's the going rate for punishment these days: beat a kid up in school, no cable privileges for a month.  Phallic graffito on the roof of your parent's £1m home? Continue travelling at your parents' expense with the threat of cleanup duty upon return. 

It's a cosmic oversight that I didn't have these parents growing up.  World domination would have been not too far behind, I reckon...

Truth to Power - 'Casino' Style

Looking at all the bonus drama around AIG and Merrill Lynch, it's so obvious that people in the Obama administration are really good at putting out words and phrases that sound elegant and polite.  Another we need to throw in there is 'criminality' - see, didn't you feel better when you just let it roll out of your mouth? (BTW, Go Andrew Cuomo - keep up the good work.)

During Obama's Leno performance, he mentioned that 'nobody was really looking at this (CDO) problem and now we've got to fix it'.  Rubbish.  Say what you want about Wall Streeters, they are by and large some of the most educated business people on the planet. Trust me, somebody was definitely looking at it - a lot of somebodies in fact.  So, Incompetence, Oopsie-daisy, or the Big Scam - are we seriously thinking there's a choice here?

And then there's the Ace Rothstein Way...


Made me think of a line in Martin Scorsese's 1995 film, 'Casino' (or, 'Goodfellas-goes-Vegas-with-Sharon-Stone's-best-role' movie) where Ace Rothstein (Robert de Niro) fires a Good Ol' Boy for letting 3 slot machines cash out on the same day:

 "Listen, if you didn't know you're bein' scammed, then you're too f*****' dumb to keep this job; if you did know, you were in on it - Either way...YOU'RRRRE OUT!'  

Ahh, that's what I'm talkin' about... time to go gangsta.